Welcome to the Social Media Apocalypse

It seems like the three big social media the giants are imploding before our eyes. Meta is sinking millions into virtual reality, Twitter is being seemingly gutted by Elon Musk, and Instagram is pivoting into NFTs. Are we in endgame for traditional social media?

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We’re in Endgame for Traditional Social Media

Alright, maybe I’m being a little bit dramatic. It’s likelier that Meta and Twitter are going to be more than fine in the long-run, but it’s okay to dream a little. There’s certainly no shortage of drama in the tech landscape right now.

Meta has been making big bets on VR and NFTs, and Twitter is… on fire with Elon Musk’s recent shake-ups as new CEO. But with all of these shifts, it really does seem like Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram are all at something of an existential crossroads. The next 5 years of social media are certainly going to be interesting as these Web 2.0 platforms grapple with a rapidly changing landscape, and with Web3 arriving on the scene.

📉 META MADNESS

Meta’s Going All-in on VR & the Metaverse

Meta’s share price has been plummeting. It’s down over 70% versus last year as of November 2022, and their recent Q3 earnings report hasn’t really built up a ton of confidence in their trajectory.

I saw this pretty concise tweet from Austen Allred that summed things up nicely.

Meta has been absolutely dumping money into virtual worlds, with nearly double the amount of capital expenditures vs Q3 last year.

What makes this concerning, though, is that their income has been declining precipitously because of some huge changes in the digital landscape between Apple & TikTok.

In the last several months, the recent changes to Apple’s privacy policies have deeply slashed Facebook’s advertising revenue — by about $10-billion, according to CNBC. This, as their user-base continues to decline with TikTok eating up the video market. (And Instagram Reels really just missing the mark with short-form video; many users opting to just re-post their TikToks.)

And yet with all of this going on… Mark Zuckerberg has definitively made the metaverse his solution to the problem. But is virtual reality really where Meta should be focusing on?

Meta Lacks a Defensive Moat in Big Tech

Meta is a tech giant. Sure. But not the same kind of tech giant that Apple, Amazon, Google, or Microsoft are. Meta lacks a truly defensible moat around its social media business, whereas its software-and-hardware-focused competitors have nearly bulletproof positions.

I’d say Apple is by far one of the most defensible companies in Big Tech. They are iPhone. Every other app-based business, like Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, fully relies on Apple to exist. Hence why they command a 30% share of all app-store purchases. That’s their moat — they control the hardware that over HALF of all smartphone owners in the US are using to access the internet. That’s a moat.

Then you’ve got Google who commands the other half of the US smartphone market with Android — and probably about 70% of the global smartphone market. These businesses aren’t going anywhere anytime soon.

This is the vision that I believe Mark Zuckerberg has for Meta — a defensive, software-and-hardware-based moat around his business: the metaverse.

It’s a lofty goal, for sure. And probably worth taking the risk they’ve made in their current situation. But will it work? Do people really want to spend their days in a virtual world? Is it really going to become a new primitive for mankind, the way we currently spend our days staring at screens?

I’m… doubtful. I mean, after a global pandemic that ushered everyone indoors for over two years… I would think that the last thing mankind wants is to cloister even more into a remote, digital existence.

I definitely think that might be our future one day… but maybe not in the immediate future. And certainly not in the short-term for Meta’s big bets to pay off. More so, I think Meta’s gamble on the metaverse is really quite assumptive: that the metaverse is a fully immersive virtual world. Augmented reality — a combination of the physical and digital worlds, is something I would expect to happen before humanity embraces full-immersion. Can’t wait to see how things take shape!

🐥 TWEET STORM

Twitter, as we know it, is dead

So, that’s me being dramatic again. But… maybe not really. I’m unsure of what to make of the current Twitter situation.

Elon Musk’s acquisition started as a joke, until things got too real, and he was backed into a corner where he was forced to follow through. Musk was ultimately forced to purchase Twitter after initially attempting to back out over spam-bots. So now we’re here — one of the largest platforms in the world, helmed by an unwilling buyer.

Is Elon Musk sinking Twitter? Or saving it?

You know, it’s really unclear.

After spending $44-billion to acquire the platform (whether willingly or not), you would think that Elon Musk would be trying his hardest to save the platform. If nothing else, to save his own ass. But his recent actions just seem… too irrational. Let’s assume we know what Elon’s goals with Twitter are (he’s tweeted as much):

1. Spam: Make Twitter a platform for REAL people and eliminate spam-bots

2. Speech: Make Twitter the true global town-square and protect radical free speech

3. Money: Diversify Twitter’s revenue streams and make it a profitable business

I suppose you can make the leap to say his recent actions have all, in some ways, tied directly into these goals:

• Revamped Twitter Blue by increasing the price to $7.99/mo and introducing blue-check verification for everyone

  • Spam: Spammers might be less likely to use their own money to pay for the verification, and as more users verify, we inherently begin to distrust non-verified accounts.

  • Money: This can help also diversify Twitter’s revenue streams away from advertising, and into fixed recurring revenue via subscription.

• Fired about 50% of Twitter’s staff around the world

  • Money: Direct impact to future profitability as they reduce overhead and streamline operations.

  • Speech: Those fired include some moderation teams in charge of enforcing speech guidelines; slimmer team will ultimately mean fewer speech-related bans, and therefore more allowed voices.

There’s certainly more to come, but these are certainly the most topical, and most directly impacting daily users on the platform.

Twitter Verification Still Needs Some Work

The biggest most obvious change in the last week has been Twitter Blue. Where before it cost $4.99/mo (or $2.99/mo if you got in super early), the subscription now costs $7.99/mo. It will now come with additional advanced features including blue-checkmark verification to help denote subscribers as “real people.”

I have already been a Twitter Blue subscriber (and don’t yet have my checkmark) but I think the verification system still needs a lot of work.

To start, blue-checkmark verification doesn’t actually verify anything on Twitter Blue. (Aside from your credit card info, I suppose…) Currently, if you subscribe to Blue, you’re verified. I would have preferred for Twitter to implement something akin to dating apps like Bumble: a selfie to confirm you’re a real person. (And maybe an ID card photo to confirm you’re who you say you are.)

This might still be down the pipeline, and certainly something that could become automated with AI-facial recognition tools. But for now, something like this would have definitely fallen under the purview of a moderation team. (You know, part of those who were recently fired.)

Twitter Layoffs Bring New Talent to Web3 Social

The silver lining that I can see (for Web3) with all of this movement is: there are now thousands of experienced designers, engineers, project managers, etc. looking for work, and the Web3 ecosystem may very well be their next step.

As decentralized social media players like Lens Protocol, DeSo, Mastodon, and more begin to build out their teams to take on Web 2.0 giants, I can’t help but think that there is no better time than now to create a new social media paradigm.

Meta and Twitter are both approaching an inflection point where they will either need to innovate, or die.

For Facebook, the writing may already be on the wall as they attempt to pivot into becoming the metaverse company. Twitter can just as easily close up shop as advertisers pull out and their subscription system sputters out. Or they can successfully navigate the changing landscape and become the renewed giants of Web3 social in the next decade.

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👋 About Omaralexis Ochoa

I’m a data analyst, podcaster, pasta-lover... I'm many things, but above all, I'm a creator. I created The Gay Pro because I love sharing stories of queer success, with the intention of empowering and inspiring other queer leaders.